Discussion:
Why fewer Londoners are taking the tube – an expert explains
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Recliner
2018-05-15 16:16:37 UTC
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<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
Offramp
2018-05-15 17:42:48 UTC
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Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
"...TfL predicts that most of it’s revenue growth – £3.2 billion over the next five years - will come from the new Elizabeth Line..."

It's/its problems.
Recliner
2018-05-15 19:03:06 UTC
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Post by Offramp
Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
"...TfL predicts that most of it’s revenue growth – £3.2 billion over the
next five years - will come from the new Elizabeth Line..."
It's/its problems.
Yup, all too common these days, even in official publications.
tim...
2018-05-16 07:55:05 UTC
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Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
I wonder how much hopper fares contribute to lower income

I get a free return journey (same bus opposite direction) last week because
of the hopper rules

tim
Recliner
2018-05-16 08:16:30 UTC
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Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
I wonder how much hopper fares contribute to lower income
I get a free return journey (same bus opposite direction) last week because
of the hopper rules
The total number of journeys is falling.
Roland Perry
2018-05-16 11:23:04 UTC
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Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
I wonder how much hopper fares contribute to lower income
You mean hopper fares on buses abstracting ridership (and hence revenue)
from the tube?

Seems a bit of a stretch to me.
Post by tim...
I get a free return journey (same bus opposite direction) last week
because of the hopper rules
Thus not an abstraction of two tube fares, in any sense at all.
--
Roland Perry
tim...
2018-05-16 13:11:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Roland Perry
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
I wonder how much hopper fares contribute to lower income
You mean hopper fares on buses abstracting ridership (and hence revenue)
from the tube?
no

from people making previously chargeable trips for free

I understand the motivation of hopper fares to encourage people to make an
end to end journey using 2 buses for a single fare when previously they
would have used the tube to get "free" connections. (and hence take some
load off the tube)

But, unlike the tube, there is no mechanism for determining whether a person
is making a connection on a through journey, or only made the change of bus
because they were stooping at that point anyway.
Post by Roland Perry
Seems a bit of a stretch to me.
Post by tim...
I get a free return journey (same bus opposite direction) last week
because of the hopper rules
Thus not an abstraction of two tube fares, in any sense at all.
It's an abstraction of a bus fare

(I had changed the subject to total income, not just tube income)

tim
Recliner
2018-05-16 13:29:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Roland Perry
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
<https://theconversation.com/why-fewer-londoners-are-taking-the-tube-an-expert-explains-94754>
I wonder how much hopper fares contribute to lower income
You mean hopper fares on buses abstracting ridership (and hence revenue)
from the tube?
no
from people making previously chargeable trips for free
I understand the motivation of hopper fares to encourage people to make an
end to end journey using 2 buses for a single fare when previously they
would have used the tube to get "free" connections. (and hence take some
load off the tube)
But, unlike the tube, there is no mechanism for determining whether a person
is making a connection on a through journey, or only made the change of bus
because they were stooping at that point anyway.
Post by Roland Perry
Seems a bit of a stretch to me.
Post by tim...
I get a free return journey (same bus opposite direction) last week
because of the hopper rules
Thus not an abstraction of two tube fares, in any sense at all.
It's an abstraction of a bus fare
(I had changed the subject to total income, not just tube income)
Yes, but the problem being analysed is the unexpected drop in the
number of journeys (both bus and tube), not the average fares paid. If
anything, the Hopper fares might have increased the number of
journeys, not reduced them.
Paul Corfield
2018-05-24 09:09:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Recliner
Yes, but the problem being analysed is the unexpected drop in the
number of journeys (both bus and tube), not the average fares paid. If
anything, the Hopper fares might have increased the number of
journeys, not reduced them.
Err hard to say. Based on data in the London Datastore the total no of pass jnys on the bus network is down on last year. TfL set themselves a very pessimistic target for bus pass jnys and, hey presto, the numbers are better than their target. I expect there will be some modest trumpeting of this "success" in the annual report due out in a few weeks time.

TfL have not released any meaningful analysis of the Hopper ticket but they don't yet have reliable data because the nature of the Hopper ticket discount has changed. They may have an internal view but they are reticent to share such views on partial datasets.

Ridership is down on every mode expect Overground year on year. All except trams and buses are down against TfL's targets.

http://content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20180523-item06-finance-report-p13.pdf

I've not read the article but my sense of things is that the economy is the main problem followed by changing patterns of shopping and leisure activity. Buses are still disproportionately affected by overly slow scheduled journey times and traffic congestion. Expect to see a lot more cuts and changes to the bus network as the planners try to take out more and more cost from the network to reduce the peak vehicle requirement and reshape services relative to demand.
--
Paul C
via Google
Optimist
2018-06-27 08:57:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Corfield
Post by Recliner
Yes, but the problem being analysed is the unexpected drop in the
number of journeys (both bus and tube), not the average fares paid. If
anything, the Hopper fares might have increased the number of
journeys, not reduced them.
Err hard to say. Based on data in the London Datastore the total no of pass jnys on the bus network is down on last year. TfL set themselves a very pessimistic target for bus pass jnys and, hey presto, the numbers are better than their target. I expect there will be some modest trumpeting of this "success" in the annual report due out in a few weeks time.
TfL have not released any meaningful analysis of the Hopper ticket but they don't yet have reliable data because the nature of the Hopper ticket discount has changed. They may have an internal view but they are reticent to share such views on partial datasets.
Ridership is down on every mode expect Overground year on year. All except trams and buses are down against TfL's targets.
http://content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20180523-item06-finance-report-p13.pdf
I've not read the article but my sense of things is that the economy is the main problem followed by changing patterns of shopping and leisure activity. Buses are still disproportionately affected by overly slow scheduled journey times and traffic congestion. Expect to see a lot more cuts and changes to the bus network as the planners try to take out more and more cost from the network to reduce the peak vehicle requirement and reshape services relative to demand.
Could it be that the long-predicted shift away from daily commuting as people increasingly work from
home, enabled by the communications revolution, is happening at last?
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