Discussion:
No third runway at Heathrow before 2035 (prediction)
(too old to reply)
tim...
2019-10-20 13:50:06 UTC
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posted without comment

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Recliner
2019-10-20 15:18:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
tim...
2019-10-20 15:35:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more slots
in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
Graeme Wall
2019-10-20 15:50:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more
slots in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
He actually wants bigger aircraft but Airbus won't make them.
--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.
Recliner
2019-10-20 16:06:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Graeme Wall
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more
slots in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
He actually wants bigger aircraft but Airbus won't make them.
Yup. Even worse, from his point of view, Airbus and RR won't even produce
an enhanced, more efficient version of the 388, as they believe not enough
would be sold to justify the investment. Both would rather produce enhanced
versions of the bigger-selling, much more modern, A350.
tim...
2019-10-20 18:25:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Graeme Wall
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more
slots in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
He actually wants bigger aircraft but Airbus won't make them.
As the 380 was a financial disaster, that's hardly a surprise
Recliner
2019-10-20 16:03:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more slots
in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
Heathrow is a hub that competes with Dubai, and he doesn't want it to be
strengthened.

With six A380 flights a day, EK has far more seats available on the LHR-DXB
route than all the other airlines combined. It also has three EK A380
flights a day to Gatwick, and two 777 flights to Stansted, so there are no
fewer than nine EK A380 and two 777 flights a day on the LON-DXB route. BA,
Virgin and Qantas combined only have a fraction of that capacity.

It also has direct flights from five regional UK airports — Birmingham,
Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester and Newcastle — and can easily get more
regional slots if it needs them.

EK has a competitive advantage by operating flights direct from five UK
regional and three London airports to its Dubai hub. For example, someone
from the UK regions can get to, say, Sydney with only one stop with EK, but
would need two stops using any European airline.

If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
It's hard to see EK being favoured in such an event. The net result is that
EK would lose some of its competitive advantage.
tim...
2019-10-20 18:47:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more slots
in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
Heathrow is a hub that competes with Dubai,
Really

People fly from e.g. SE Asia via London to other parts of Europe in droves?
Don't see it personally.

I can see that they will use London for East Coast USA, but I don't see that
option needs any strengthening. It's already strong enough

West Coast USA is usually better reached Trans-Pacific
Post by Recliner
and he doesn't want it to be
strengthened.
With six A380 flights a day, EK has far more seats available on the LHR-DXB
route than all the other airlines combined. It also has three EK A380
flights a day to Gatwick, and two 777 flights to Stansted, so there are no
fewer than nine EK A380 and two 777 flights a day on the LON-DXB route. BA,
Virgin and Qantas combined only have a fraction of that capacity.
It also has direct flights from five regional UK airports — Birmingham,
Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester and Newcastle — and can easily get more
regional slots if it needs them.
Yes, I know all that I did read the article (and in any case DXB is a
popular routing for people who join me on my holiday choices from non-London
starting points, and I'm doing it myself on the next but one holiday -
because I've added in the stop over - but only the once).
Post by Recliner
EK has a competitive advantage by operating flights direct from five UK
regional and three London airports to its Dubai hub. For example, someone
from the UK regions can get to, say, Sydney with only one stop with EK, but
would need two stops using any European airline.
So how is a bigger hub at LHR going to change that?
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?

You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport) carriers who
want slots?

I see them being handed out (well presumably sold to) already established
airlines with few slots each.
Post by Recliner
It's hard to see EK being favoured in such an event. The net result is that
EK would lose some of its competitive advantage.
EKs advantage is its reputation for quality, both in the air and, I presume
at the stop over.

For Central Asia my most recent experience is with Turkish and Ukrainian.
The first was passable and the second awful (it was the connection that made
it so, not the point to point flight). I don't think I'll be trying
connecting via a second string airline again.

Of course, where it is competing with the established SE Asian airlines, who
also have a high reputation, most of that competition is going to with a
direct flight. Sunday I was expected to go to BKK via SIN. I said to the
TA, don't be silly, find me a direct flight! Which they did for 30 pounds
more (in 700).

tim
Recliner
2019-10-21 11:54:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
posted without comment
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/heathrow-airport-expansion-runway-emirates-sir-tim-clark-birmingham-airport-a9160851.html
Of course Tim Clark has an axe to grind, just as Willie Walsh does. For
quite different reasons, it would suit both of them if the runway is never
built.
you need to explain that because that article says that he wants more slots
in Heathrow and wont get them without the new runway
Heathrow is a hub that competes with Dubai,
Really
People fly from e.g. SE Asia via London to other parts of Europe in droves?
Don't see it personally.
That used to be the Qantas model: they flew people into LHR, from
where they flew all over Europe on BA. EK snatched that deal, moving
Qantas's hub from London to Emirates.
Post by tim...
I can see that they will use London for East Coast USA, but I don't see that
option needs any strengthening. It's already strong enough
West Coast USA is usually better reached Trans-Pacific
Only from East Asia. South Asia is better through Europe.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
and he doesn't want it to be
strengthened.
With six A380 flights a day, EK has far more seats available on the LHR-DXB
route than all the other airlines combined. It also has three EK A380
flights a day to Gatwick, and two 777 flights to Stansted, so there are no
fewer than nine EK A380 and two 777 flights a day on the LON-DXB route. BA,
Virgin and Qantas combined only have a fraction of that capacity.
It also has direct flights from five regional UK airports — Birmingham,
Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester and Newcastle — and can easily get more
regional slots if it needs them.
Yes, I know all that I did read the article (and in any case DXB is a
popular routing for people who join me on my holiday choices from non-London
starting points, and I'm doing it myself on the next but one holiday -
because I've added in the stop over - but only the once).
Post by Recliner
EK has a competitive advantage by operating flights direct from five UK
regional and three London airports to its Dubai hub. For example, someone
from the UK regions can get to, say, Sydney with only one stop with EK, but
would need two stops using any European airline.
So how is a bigger hub at LHR going to change that?
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?
That's the stated plan. It's why IAG is so against the third runway.
Post by tim...
You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport) carriers who
want slots?
Of course! What an amazing question to ask!
Post by tim...
I see them being handed out (well presumably sold to) already established
airlines with few slots each.
You can see whatever you like, but that's not the stated plan.
tim...
2019-10-21 12:37:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?
That's the stated plan. It's why IAG is so against the third runway.
Oh I understand IAG aren't going to get anymore

but that doesn't mean that LH (as an example) wont
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport) carriers who
want slots?
Of course! What an amazing question to ask!
Come one then, name some major airlines currently with zero slots, waiting
on the list

tim
Recliner
2019-10-21 12:53:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?
That's the stated plan. It's why IAG is so against the third runway.
Oh I understand IAG aren't going to get anymore
but that doesn't mean that LH (as an example) wont
The LH group already have as many slots as they can use, thanks to
owning bmi for years.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport) carriers who
want slots?
Of course! What an amazing question to ask!
Come one then, name some major airlines currently with zero slots, waiting
on the list
Who said anything about *major* airlines? Plenty of airlines would
like to move from Gatwick to Heathrow.

Would Chinese and East European airlines not want more LHR slots?

Some will go for UK domestic flights.
tim...
2019-10-21 14:58:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?
That's the stated plan. It's why IAG is so against the third runway.
Oh I understand IAG aren't going to get anymore
but that doesn't mean that LH (as an example) wont
The LH group already have as many slots as they can use, thanks to
owning bmi for years.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport) carriers who
want slots?
Of course! What an amazing question to ask!
Come one then, name some major airlines currently with zero slots, waiting
on the list
Who said anything about *major* airlines?
The premise was that they are going to be competition for Emirates on
indirect journeys from ROW locations

minor airlines not going to have the ROW connections to be such competition.
Post by Recliner
Plenty of airlines would
like to move from Gatwick to Heathrow.
But that's not what the LHR runway is supposed to provide.

moving flights from LGW to LHR does not increase capacity in SE England.

Obviously, we can't have rules to stop that

But it seems daft to have rules to favour it.
Post by Recliner
Would Chinese
I've said in the past that I don't believe that there is much scope for
increases of flight from China.

The reason that we don't have the connections to China that other countries
have is because we make it so bloody difficult for the Chinese to get Visas
to come here. So there isn't the demand from there, that would make flights
to Chinese regions viable.
Post by Recliner
and East European airlines not want more LHR slots?
Wizzair seem to have E Europe sown up. I doubt that they will want to move
to LHR.
Post by Recliner
Some will go for UK domestic flights.
Hm, I'll believe that when I see it
Recliner
2019-10-21 15:42:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?
That's the stated plan. It's why IAG is so against the third runway.
Oh I understand IAG aren't going to get anymore
but that doesn't mean that LH (as an example) wont
The LH group already have as many slots as they can use, thanks to
owning bmi for years.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport) carriers who
want slots?
Of course! What an amazing question to ask!
Come one then, name some major airlines currently with zero slots, waiting
on the list
Who said anything about *major* airlines?
The premise was that they are going to be competition for Emirates on
indirect journeys from ROW locations
The threat to EK is if its DXB hub is bypassed by long haul direct flights
to Heathrow from Asian or African cities.
Post by tim...
minor airlines not going to have the ROW connections to be such competition.
That's exactly what they might have.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Plenty of airlines would
like to move from Gatwick to Heathrow.
But that's not what the LHR runway is supposed to provide.
moving flights from LGW to LHR does not increase capacity in SE England.
Yes it does, because it frees space in Gatwick for less premium airlines.
Post by tim...
Obviously, we can't have rules to stop that
But it seems daft to have rules to favour it.
Post by Recliner
Would Chinese
I've said in the past that I don't believe that there is much scope for
increases of flight from China.
The reason that we don't have the connections to China that other countries
have is because we make it so bloody difficult for the Chinese to get Visas
to come here. So there isn't the demand from there, that would make flights
to Chinese regions viable.
We already get lots of Chinese visitors, but you're right that we need to
make it easier for them to get UK visas.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
and East European airlines not want more LHR slots?
Wizzair seem to have E Europe sown up. I doubt that they will want to move
to LHR.
Post by Recliner
Some will go for UK domestic flights.
Hm, I'll believe that when I see it
That's part of the deal.
Graeme Wall
2019-10-21 16:01:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
If LHR does get 50% more slots, preference will be given to new airlines
without an existing presence, probably followed by other local carriers.
you think?
That's the stated plan. It's why IAG is so against the third runway.
Oh I understand IAG aren't going to get anymore
but that doesn't mean that LH (as an example) wont
The LH group already have as many slots as they can use, thanks to
owning bmi for years.
Post by tim...
Post by Recliner
Post by tim...
You really think that there will be enough new (to the airport)
carriers
who
want slots?
Of course!  What an amazing question to ask!
Come one then, name some major airlines currently with zero slots, waiting
on the list
Who said anything about *major* airlines?
The premise was that they are going to be competition for Emirates on
indirect journeys from ROW locations
minor airlines not going to have the ROW connections to be such competition.
Post by Recliner
Plenty of airlines would
like to move from Gatwick to Heathrow.
But that's not what the LHR runway is supposed to provide.
moving flights from LGW to LHR does not increase capacity in SE England.
Obviously, we can't have rules to stop that
But it seems daft to have rules to favour it.
Post by Recliner
Would Chinese
I've said in the past that I don't believe that there is much scope for
increases of flight from China.
The reason that we don't have the connections to China that other
countries have is because we make it so bloody difficult for the Chinese
to get Visas to come here.  So there isn't the demand from there, that
would make flights to Chinese regions viable.
Every University I've visited in the last ten years has a high
proportion of Chinese students. So there is some demand.
--
Graeme Wall
This account not read.
Roland Perry
2019-10-20 16:49:28 UTC
Permalink
Is that because Boris promised to lie (or is that lay) in front of the
bulldozers? A man of many last ditches.
--
Roland Perry
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